Forecasting and Simulations in International Relations

The course is intended to provide students with knowledge and skills needed to understand role of forecasting and simulations in foreign policy making. The course aims at providing SGH students with interest in international political and economic relations an opportunity to study one of the key theoretical and practical problems in this domain. The course will be opened by an introductory discussion on key structural problems of contemporary world order, e.g., the questions of uni-/bi-/multipolarity, unilateralism vs. multilateralism, or the industrial revolution 4.0. The ensuing classes will be devoted to the leading Foreign Policy Analysis theories and levels of analysis. In the third part of the course definitions of forecasting and simulations, the differences between these instruments, and the research methods involved in using them will be discussed. The semester will be closed by two workshops and a concluding lecture. The course shall take the form of a seminar (konwersatoriu

Providing students with knowledge and skills needed to understand role of forecasting and simulations in international-relations policy making, as well as the related models and methods.

Literatura podstawowa:

V.M. Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary Theory, 3rd Edition, Rowman & Littlefield, Lanham, MD 2019.

P.E. Tetlock, D. Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Broadway Books, New York 2015.

M. Granger Morgan, Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis, Cambrigde University Press, Cambridge 2017.

Literatura uzupełniająca:

J.E. Harrington, Games, Strategies and Decision Making, Macmillan Group, 2nd Ed., 2015.

P.J. Katzenstein, L.A. Seybert (eds.), Protean Power: Exploring the Uncertain and Unexpected in World Politics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2017.

Good Judgment Project, www.gjopen.com.

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS),

https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/EUISSFiles/ESPAS_Report.pdf.

Global Trends 2040, https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/GlobalTrends_2040.pdf.

Publikacje własne:

Przemysław Biskup, The long-term implications of Brexit for Northern Ireland,W: Towards an ambitious, broad, deep and flexible EU-UK partnership? ,2020;

Przemysław Biskup, Polska w długim cieniu brexitu, W: Polski Przegląd Dyplomatyczny,2018;

Przemysław Biskup, Lew i smok : Dynamika i perspektywy relacji brytyjsko-chińskich w latach 2010-2021,W: red. Agnieszka Kuczkiewicz-Fraś, Chiny w polityce międzynarodowej : Wybrane aspekty,2022 Doświadczenie zawodowe lub doświadczenie dydaktyczne: Równoległa praca na etacie głównego specjalisty - analityka w Polskim Instytucie Spraw Międzynarodowych, gdzie m.in. byłem autorem rozdziału nt. Wielkiej Brytanii w projekcie forecastingowym zrealizowanym na rzecz MSZ pt. "Polska w świecie za 15 lat" (grudzień 2022).

Wykładowca KSAP w zakresie brexitu i prognozowania jego skutków dla Polski.

Kryteria oceniania:

egzamin tradycyjny-pisemny: 0.00%

egzamin testowy: 0.00%

egzamin ustny: 0.00%

kolokwium: 0.00%

ocena z ćwiczeń: 0.00%

inne: 10.00%

projekty: 0.00%

studia przypadków: 60.00%

prezentacje indywidualne lub grupowe: 30.00%

The course is intended to provide students with knowledge and skills needed to understand role of forecasting and simulations in foreign policy making. The course aims at providing SGH students with interest in international political and economic relations an opportunity to study one of the key theoretical and practical problems in this domain. The course will be opened by an introductory discussion on key structural problems of contemporary world order, e.g., the questions of uni-/bi-/multipolarity, unilateralism vs. multilateralism, or the industrial revolution 4.0. The ensuing classes will be devoted to the leading Foreign Policy Analysis theories and levels of analysis. In the third part of the course definitions of forecasting and simulations, the differences between these instruments, and the research methods involved in using them will be discussed. The semester will be closed by two workshops and a concluding lecture. The course shall take the form of a seminar (konwersatoriu

Providing students with knowledge and skills needed to understand role of forecasting and simulations in international-relations policy making, as well as the related models and methods.

Literatura podstawowa:

V.M. Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary Theory, 3rd Edition, Rowman & Littlefield, Lanham, MD 2019.

P.E. Tetlock, D. Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Broadway Books, New York 2015.

M. Granger Morgan, Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis, Cambrigde University Press, Cambridge 2017.

Literatura uzupełniająca:

J.E. Harrington, Games, Strategies and Decision Making, Macmillan Group, 2nd Ed., 2015.

P.J. Katzenstein, L.A. Seybert (eds.), Protean Power: Exploring the Uncertain and Unexpected in World Politics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2017.

Good Judgment Project, www.gjopen.com.

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS),

https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/EUISSFiles/ESPAS_Report.pdf.

Global Trends 2040, https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/GlobalTrends_2040.pdf.

Publikacje własne:

Przemysław Biskup, The long-term implications of Brexit for Northern Ireland,W: Towards an ambitious, broad, deep and flexible EU-UK partnership? ,2020;

Przemysław Biskup, Polska w długim cieniu brexitu, W: Polski Przegląd Dyplomatyczny,2018;

Przemysław Biskup, Lew i smok : Dynamika i perspektywy relacji brytyjsko-chińskich w latach 2010-2021,W: red. Agnieszka Kuczkiewicz-Fraś, Chiny w polityce międzynarodowej : Wybrane aspekty,2022 Doświadczenie zawodowe lub doświadczenie dydaktyczne: Równoległa praca na etacie głównego specjalisty - analityka w Polskim Instytucie Spraw Międzynarodowych, gdzie m.in. byłem autorem rozdziału nt. Wielkiej Brytanii w projekcie forecastingowym zrealizowanym na rzecz MSZ pt. "Polska w świecie za 15 lat" (grudzień 2022).

Wykładowca KSAP w zakresie brexitu i prognozowania jego skutków dla Polski.

Kryteria oceniania:

egzamin tradycyjny-pisemny: 0.00%

egzamin testowy: 0.00%

egzamin ustny: 0.00%

kolokwium: 0.00%

ocena z ćwiczeń: 0.00%

inne: 10.00%

projekty: 0.00%

studia przypadków: 60.00%

prezentacje indywidualne lub grupowe: 30.00%